2007 Emmy Predictions Part 4: Drama Series

Four of the five nominees in this category have a chance to win this year, and I'm not sure I can make any meaningful prediction about which one it will be. But dammit, that's not going to stop me from trying! And frankly, most people who make these predictions, about the Emmys in particular, are talking out of  their ass. Sheer merit is only one of many factors that go into deciding who takes home the little statuettes, with other and perhaps more important ones including changes in the judging process, Hollywood politics, high-school style popularity issues and perceived momentum. So let's roll the dice! Here are the nominees...

ABC's "Boston Legal" could be renamed "No Chance" for the
purposes of this post. Audiences are moving away from the David E. Kelley school of high-stakes wackiness. There are some fine moments here, especially when James Spader and William Shatner are sitting out on the deck, philosophising over drinks and cigars. But you're not going to see them on the podium at the end of the night. And there are better shows that weren't even nominated - "Rescue Me" is just one that comes to mind, so don't cry for Kelley and company.

ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" has to be thought of as a frontrunner here. One, it's a pretty good show with a large and loyal audience. It's well thought-of in Hollywood, to judge by the large number of acting nominations it receives. But last year, when it also got a buttload of nominations, all it won was "best casting." Yeesh. Time for a make-good win? Behind the scenes, the show is successful in a couple of ways that might appeal to Emmy voters - it's run by a strong black woman (Shonda Rimes, left), which is a rarity in Hollywood, and it has already given birth to a highly anticipated sequel, this fall's "Private Practice." Last but not least, the Isaiah Washington/"faggot" uproar makes the show a politically correct choice. One drawback - it's soapy and maybe not the best drama on television.

NBC's "Heroes" has to be considered a dark horse. In terms of audience buzz, it's probably the hottest show on television right now. And the producers have done  an astonishingly good job turning an unlikely comic-book scenario into a big hit. Hiro and the Cheerleader have become pop culture icons. And with its raft of digital special effects, it's very much of the moment without ever losing its humanity. But Hollywood has traditionally found it difficult to give its trophies to sci fi or comic book material - otherwise "Battlestar Galactica" would have been nominated instead of "Boston Legal." Still, traditional TV is trying hard to appear more technologically groovy and hook up to the Internets these days, and a best drama nod for "Heroes" would be like Hollywood saying "we bad, we bad, uh-huh."

Fox's "House" is my favorite show on TV, due almost entirely to the performance of Hugh Laurie as the snarling, sarcastic, drugged up, brilliant and, on some level, desperately lonely Dr. Gregory House. His performance has more depth than any on TV bar James Gandolfini as Tony Soprano, and yet also manages to be tremendously entertaining on a pop level. It's about time Laurie was recognized with an Emmy, and maybe this will be "House's" year. Hollywood has a way of getting around to honoring shows about a season and a half after they should have. On the other hand, the boatloads of mumbo jumbo accompanying the medical mystery of the week is not the most compelling writing on TV. If you see David Morse win for guest acting as Detective Tritter, call your bookie, though.

And so we come to HBO's "The Sopranos." Don't stop believing. Predicting the acting categories, I sort of leaned away from this already much-honored show. But now that I come to the last paragraph of this series of posts and ponder the last act of the HBO series, I wonder if maybe the Emmy voters won't take one last opportunity to garland it. Were they too pissed off by the smash cut to black that ended the show in enigmatic fashion? Or will they vote for it to honor David Chase's creative independence? I don't freakin' know. Still, I think if I had to bet the rent on one show, this would be it. How can you vote against the greatest drama in television history? Onion rings all around!

Comments

[courtney]

I hope house wins. Hugh Laurie is the most amazing actor on TV. The Sopranos is a great show, but they have already won it like 3 or 4 times. Let House have it.

[jamie]

House all the way!!

[ashley]

uhh, I hate the sopranos. I love Grey's Anatomy and House. But for the winner I say house. hugh is my man!

[Sergio]

What about Battlestar Galactica?

They won an Emmy too!

[Grace]

The winner has got to be....HOUSE!!!
With HUGH LAURIE winning for BEST ACTOR!!

We LOVE you HUGH!!!